AI Defense Shield

PLTR
LDOS
BAH
+1
11 assetslow risk1d

Bets on defense companies building AI and drone tech as military spending surges.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

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The idea

Bets on defense companies building AI and drone tech as military spending surges.

This strategy captures the accelerating shift in global defense spending toward AI-powered systems, autonomous weapons, and digital battlefield technology. With NATO nations ramping budgets past 2% of GDP, the US Defense Department channeling billions into AI and drone programs, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East proving the dominance of autonomous systems over legacy hardware, the companies building this next generation of defense technology are seeing record order books. The strategy organizes these companies into three tiers — established AI defense platforms like Palantir with multi-year classified contracts at the core, autonomous drone and satellite makers in the middle tier, and emerging AI defense pure plays as growth positions. It watches the overall defense sector ETF for signs of trouble, trimming riskier positions first when conditions deteriorate and gradually rebuilding when strength returns. Monthly rotation drops the weakest performer and replaces it with the strongest momentum name, letting winners compound. Built for investors who believe the future of defense is software, autonomy, and AI rather than legacy platforms and cost-plus contracts.

Design

How it works

  1. Picks companies making AI weapons, autonomous drones, and battlefield software

  2. Splits money across established leaders, mid-tier growth companies, and emerging pure plays

  3. Swaps out weakest performer monthly, keeps winners compounding

  4. Pulls back when overall defense sector weakens, rebuilds when it strengthens

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When defense budgets are growing and geopolitical tensions stay high
  • When AI and autonomous weapons are getting real battlefield wins
  • When tech stocks and defense stocks both trending upward together
  • When momentum is steady — winners keep winning month to month

Not built for

  • When the market suddenly crashes and investors flee risky tech stocks
  • When peace talks or political shifts reduce defense spending expectations
  • When a major defense company loses a big contract or faces scandal
  • When the overall market turns sideways — no clear winners to rotate into

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
26 Aug 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The 2022 Slump

A full year of falling prices as interest rates shot up.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 around 2022ends about 33% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100
The real dates
3 Jan – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
fell 33%
How we run it
Real trading days

A full year of lower highs as the Federal Reserve raised rates from near zero to over 4%. Four separate rallies of 10% or more along the way, every one of which failed.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 15% to 18% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

When markets go nowhere

The Wild Swings of Late 2022

Violent rallies and sharp drops, ending roughly flat.

our model of the S&P 500 around Jun–Dec 2022swings about 13% either way, and ends about 2% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
30 Jun – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
1.4% higher
How we run it
Real trading days

Essentially flat over six months, but by way of a 17% summer rally, a 17% autumn decline, and a 14% year-end rally. The destination was nowhere; the journey was violent.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 15% to 18% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets rise

The Bull Run of 2016–17

Two calm years when the market just kept climbing.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2016–17ends about 42% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
4 Jan 2016 – 29 Dec 2017
What the index did
rose 30.8%

When markets rise

The 2020 Tech Boom

Tech nearly doubled in under a year after the COVID low.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 around Mar 2020–Feb 2021rises about 85% at its turn, then ends about 78% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100
The real dates
23 Mar 2020 – 12 Feb 2021
What the index did
rose 97%

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/ai-defense-shield?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled · shown above Tested
  • The 2020 Tech BoomWhen markets rise · shown above Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 11 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

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+ 7 more assets in this strategy

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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