Retirement calculator
Will your savings last? We live your plan through every real stretch of market history since 1928, crashes included, and count how often the money lasts.
AmaltashThe rest is in 10-year US Treasury bonds. Rebalanced every year.
Your money lasted to age 95 in 29 of 44 real histories
Each history starts in a different year, from 1928 to 1971, and lives through what really happened next.
Hypothetical illustration based on your inputs. Not a prediction, a recommendation, or the performance of any Amaltash strategy.
How it works: we replay your plan through each real sequence of S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury returns (NYU Stern, 1928–2025) minus that year's inflation (US CPI), in today's dollars, and count how often your savings last.
Results change each time you change an input, and as new market data is added.
Real investing is different. Fees, taxes and trading costs are not included. Past market returns do not predict future returns, and you can lose money.
See every history we tested
One row per start year. Bad starts, like 1929 and 1966, are where plans break.
| Start year | Savings when you retire | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1928 | $954,651 | Lasted · $310,056 left |
| 1929 | $820,821 | Lasted · $50,368 left |
| 1930 | $1,105,870 | Lasted · $176,351 left |
| 1931 | $1,344,542 | Lasted · $398,588 left |
| 1932 | $1,515,022 | Lasted · $1,071,781 left |
| 1933 | $1,309,748 | Lasted · $821,941 left |
| 1934 | $1,348,384 | Lasted · $292,315 left |
| 1935 | $1,372,003 | Lasted · $366,830 left |
| 1936 | $1,219,869 | Ran out at 93 |
| 1937 | $1,266,516 | Ran out at 89 |
| 1938 | $1,373,854 | Lasted · $190,595 left |
| 1939 | $1,348,969 | Ran out at 91 |
| 1940 | $1,451,655 | Ran out at 91 |
| 1941 | $1,548,476 | Ran out at 93 |
| 1942 | $1,558,547 | Lasted · $556,360 left |
| 1943 | $1,647,097 | Lasted · $572,875 left |
| 1944 | $1,535,239 | Lasted · $115,245 left |
| 1945 | $1,240,469 | Ran out at 91 |
| 1946 | $1,120,850 | Ran out at 86 |
| 1947 | $1,358,377 | Lasted · $148,367 left |
| 1948 | $1,491,112 | Lasted · $408,886 left |
| 1949 | $1,233,569 | Lasted · $490,285 left |
| 1950 | $831,049 | Lasted · $29,694 left |
| 1951 | $873,151 | Ran out at 92 |
| 1952 | $938,314 | Ran out at 90 |
| 1953 | $776,259 | Ran out at 88 |
| 1954 | $723,967 | Ran out at 92 |
| 1955 | $583,111 | Ran out at 83 |
| 1956 | $546,902 | Ran out at 82 |
| 1957 | $498,609 | Ran out at 87 |
| 1958 | $619,135 | Lasted · $20,131 left |
| 1959 | $600,604 | Ran out at 92 |
| 1960 | $610,355 | Lasted · $63,149 left |
| 1961 | $736,869 | Lasted · $324,735 left |
| 1962 | $804,737 | Lasted · $220,572 left |
| 1963 | $790,572 | Lasted · $661,692 left |
| 1964 | $797,545 | Lasted · $593,670 left |
| 1965 | $904,142 | Lasted · $711,201 left |
| 1966 | $825,812 | Lasted · $942,513 left |
| 1967 | $1,023,717 | Lasted · $1,591,302 left |
| 1968 | $1,012,227 | Lasted · $1,159,886 left |
| 1969 | $1,070,571 | Lasted · $1,421,130 left |
| 1970 | $1,072,311 | Lasted · $2,190,886 left |
| 1971 | $1,333,990 | Lasted · $2,495,894 left |
How much do I need to retire?
Start with the gap. That is what you will spend each month, minus the income you will still get, like Social Security or a pension. Your savings must cover the gap.
- Write down what you will spend each month, in today’s prices.
- Take away your other income each month. What is left is the gap.
- Multiply the gap by 12 to get one year.
- Multiply by the number of years in retirement.
The plan this page opens with spends $7,000 a month and gets $2,000 of other income. The gap is $5,000 a month, or $60,000 a year. Over 30 years, from 65 to 95, that is $1,800,000, if the savings grew no faster than prices. Growth can shrink that number and bad years can raise it. The calculator tests both, using real years.
How long will my savings last?
It depends on three things: how much you have, how much you take out, and how much the rest grows. Your withdrawal rate is the share you take out each year. Take $30,000 a year from $600,000, and your rate is 5%.
| Take out each year | Years it lasts, 0% growth | 2% growth | 4% growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 33 | 55 | Never runs out |
| 4% | 25 | 35 | Never runs out |
| 5% | 20 | 26 | 41 |
| 6% | 17 | 20 | 28 |
| 7% | 14 | 17 | 22 |
This is an example at steady rates we picked. Each rate is growth after inflation, which is the rise in prices. It is not a forecast. Money comes out at the end of each year, and years are rounded.
In words: Count how many yearly withdrawals your savings and their growth can pay for. With no growth, it is your savings divided by what you take out each year.
- the number of years the money lasts
- your savings at the start
- what you take out each year
- the growth each year after inflation, as a decimal (2% is 0.02)
The share is what counts, not the dollar amount. Taking 5% a year from $2,000,000 lasts as many years as taking 5% from $400,000.
See what money is worth now or later in the future value calculator →
The 4% rule and the 25x rule
The 4% rule is a rule of thumb from studies of past US markets.
In words: In the first year, take out 4 cents of every dollar you have saved. After that, raise the amount as prices rise.
- what you take out in the first year
- your savings on the day you retire
4% is 1 out of 25. So the same rule, turned around, says to save 25 times one year of your gap.
In words: Multiply one year of your gap by 25.
- the savings you aim for
- one year of your gap: spending minus other income
| Gap each month | Gap each year | 25 times the gap |
|---|---|---|
| $2,000 | $24,000 | $600,000 |
| $3,000 | $36,000 | $900,000 |
| $5,000 | $60,000 | $1,500,000 |
It is a starting point, not a promise. It was built for about 30 years of retirement and a mix of stocks and bonds. If your plan is longer, or your mix is different, test your own numbers above.
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
A safe withdrawal rate is the share of savings you could take out each year and still have money at the end. It is found by testing past markets, so "safe" only describes the past. No rate is sure to last in the future.
Read a rate as income: at 4%, savings pay $4,000 a year for each $100,000. The 4% rule is one such rate. This calculator finds your own instead, shown as "Spending that lasted in 9 of 10" above.
What is my FIRE number?
FIRE is a plan to stop work early. Your FIRE number is your yearly spending divided by your withdrawal rate.
Find your FIRE number and the years to reach it in the FIRE calculator →
See when you could stop saving with the Coast FIRE calculator →
Can I retire at 55, 62 or 65?
It depends on your savings, spending, other income and how long the money must last. Set "Retire at" above to the age you want.
Money taken from a 401(k) or IRA before age 59½ usually owes a 10% extra tax, on top of income tax. A few ages change that, and more:
- 55: leave your job in or after the year you turn 55, and that job’s 401(k) is free of the 10% extra tax. IRAs are not.
- 59½: the 10% extra tax no longer applies to a 401(k) or IRA.
- 62: the earliest age to claim Social Security (see below).
- 65: Medicare, the federal health plan for people 65 or older, can start.
Retire before 65 and you need health cover until Medicare. If you lose a job plan when you retire, you can buy one on the Health Insurance Marketplace. Add that cost to your spending above.
Retire before Social Security starts, and your savings pay all the bills until it does. The calculator counts other income from the day you stop work. So if yours starts later, enter less.
The earlier you stop, the more years your savings must cover. Here is a $44,000 yearly gap paid from savings to age 95, with no growth after prices:
| Retire at | Years to age 95 | Savings needed |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 45 | $1,980,000 |
| 55 | 40 | $1,760,000 |
| 60 | 35 | $1,540,000 |
| 62 | 33 | $1,452,000 |
| 65 | 30 | $1,320,000 |
Sequence of returns risk
The order of good and bad years matters once you start taking money out. Here are two people with $100,000. Each takes out $10,000 at the start of every year. Both get the same two years, a 20% drop and a 20% gain, but in a different order.
| Order of years | If nothing is taken out | Taking $10,000 a year |
|---|---|---|
| Drop, then gain | $96,000 | $74,400 |
| Gain, then drop | $96,000 | $78,400 |
With nothing taken out, the order makes no difference. With money taken out, the bad-year-first person ends $4,000 behind. They sold more when prices were low. This is why the calculator lives your plan through each real start year in order, instead of using one average.
See past S&P 500 drops, year by year, in the S&P 500 calculator →
Some people keep a year or two of spending in cash, so they need not sell after a drop. This calculator does not model that.
See what a cash buffer earns in the high-yield savings calculator →
When to claim Social Security
You can claim Social Security as early as 62 or as late as 70. If you were born in 1960 or later, your full benefit comes at 67. Claim at 62 and you get 30% less, for life. Wait until 70 and you get 24% more. Find your own amounts in your my Social Security account.
| Claim at | Change | If your full benefit is $2,000 a month |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | 30% less | $1,400 a month |
| 67 | Full benefit | $2,000 a month |
| 70 | 24% more | $2,480 a month |
Waiting means fewer checks, but bigger ones. In this example, the person who waits until 67 catches up in total dollars at about age 78 and 8 months. After that, they are ahead each month they live.
This calculator counts other income from the day you retire. So if you retire at 62, enter what you would get at 62.
Retirement savings by age
Charts of savings by age use other people’s numbers. What matters is whether your savings, plus what you add, can cover your own gap. Set your age and what you have saved, and look at "Savings at 65, middle result" above.
Time does a lot of the work. The plan this page opens with adds $750 a month from 40 to 65. That is $225,000 of deposits alone, before any growth.
See how your net worth compares with others your age →
Work out how much to invest each month in the investment calculator →
How much to keep in stocks
Your mix is how much you keep in stocks and how much in bonds. Stocks have swung more than bonds. The right mix depends on how long you will invest and how much ups and downs you can live with. In this calculator, the part not in stocks is in 10-year US Treasury bonds.
We also rebalance every year. That means putting the mix back where you set it. Say you start with $100,000 at 60% stocks: $60,000 in stocks and $40,000 in bonds. Stocks rise 20% to $72,000, and bonds stay at $40,000. The total is $112,000, and 60% of that is $67,200. So you sell $4,800 of stocks and buy bonds.
Move the stocks slider, and compare the worst history and the share that lasted at each mix.
401(k) vs IRA, and taxes later
A 401(k) is a retirement account you get through your job. Many employers add money when you do. The IRS caps what you can put in each year. For a 401(k), it is $24,500 in 2026. An IRA is an account you open on your own.
A traditional 401(k) or IRA can lower your taxes now, and you pay tax when you take money out. A Roth account works the other way: no tax break now, but qualified withdrawals can be tax free. From age 73, the IRS makes you take some money out of traditional accounts each year. These are required minimum distributions.
This calculator does not count taxes. So a traditional balance is not all yours to spend. At a 22% tax rate, $100,000 in a traditional 401(k) is about $78,000 to spend.
How this calculator works
Today's dollars. We assume your saving and spending rise with prices, so every number reads in today's money. No guessing at future inflation.
Real years, in order. Each history starts in a different year and uses what really happened next: S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury returns (NYU Stern) minus that year's inflation (US CPI, FRED).
Counting. A history "lasts" if your savings never hit zero before the age you chose. We only use histories with enough real years to cover your whole plan.
What it leaves out. Fees, taxes, and changes to your spending. Returns are spread evenly across each year's months.
Questions people ask
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
It depends on how much you take out each year and how the rest grows. With no growth after prices, taking $50,000 a year lasts 20 years. The 4% rule would take $40,000 in the first year, about $3,333 a month. Enter those numbers above and see how often it lasted in real histories. The past is not a promise.
What happens if I retire right before a crash?
That is the biggest risk in retirement. Losses early on hurt most, because you are selling to pay bills while prices are low. Look for starts like 1929 and 1966 in the table above.
How much can I spend each month?
See "Spending that lasted in 9 of 10" above. It is the most you could have spent and still lasted in 9 of every 10 real histories, with your inputs. It is not a promise for the future.
Should I count Social Security or a pension?
Yes. Add it as other income each month, along with any pension or rent you get. We take it away from your spending before touching your savings. We treat it as rising with prices. Many pensions do not, so if yours does not, enter a little less.
Does this include fees and taxes?
No. Fees and taxes both shrink what you can spend, and this calculator leaves them out. Check what each account or fund charges, and see the 401(k) section above for taxes.
Why do I see fewer histories for a longer plan?
We have 98 years of data, 1928 to 2025. Each history must fit your whole plan, from your age now to the age your money must last. A plan from 40 to 95 needs 55 years, so only start years from 1928 to 1971 fit. That is 44 histories.
Can I retire at 62?
It depends on your savings, your spending and your other income. Two things make 62 harder: Social Security is lower if you claim it then, and Medicare does not start until 65. Set "Retire at" to 62 above, add your health costs to your spending, and see how often your plan lasted.
Is this a Monte Carlo calculator?
No. A Monte Carlo calculator makes up thousands of random futures. This one replays real history instead: each stretch of actual years since 1928, in the order they happened. So the bad starts you see really happened.
Does it count inflation?
Yes. It takes each year’s real inflation out of each year’s returns, so every number is in today’s dollars. Type your spending in today’s prices too. Inflation adds up: if prices rose 3% a year, $5,000 a month of spending would cost about $9,031 a month after 20 years.
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Reviewed by Tavish Sharma, CFA · Last reviewed
Published by Amaltash Advisors LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser
Sources
- Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills, 1928–2025, NYU Stern School of Business (Aswath Damodaran)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCNS), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- Planning your Social Security claiming age, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
- Retirement topics: 401(k) and profit-sharing plan contribution limits, Internal Revenue Service
- Individual retirement arrangements (IRAs), Internal Revenue Service
- Retirement topics: required minimum distributions (RMDs), Internal Revenue Service
- Asset allocation, Investor.gov, US Securities and Exchange Commission
- Retirement topics: exceptions to tax on early distributions, Internal Revenue Service
- Get started with Medicare, Medicare.gov, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
- Health coverage for retirees, HealthCare.gov, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services