Semiconductor Alpha Cycle

NVDA
AVGO
AMD
+3
17 assetshigh risk1d

Bets on chip stocks riding the AI boom, buying and selling based on momentum signals.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

Free

Get Started — Free

Paper-trade it first. Connect an exchange when you're ready.

The idea

Bets on chip stocks riding the AI boom, buying and selling based on momentum signals.

Active buy-and-sell momentum strategy capturing the multi-year AI semiconductor supercycle across 16 names in three tiers spanning compute, networking, edge silicon, and automotive chips. Regime filter defensively exits all small-cap positions during sector-wide drawdowns. Targets 20–30 trades per year while letting winners compound through the cycle.

Design

How it works

  1. Focuses on 16 semiconductor companies at different sizes

  2. Buys when prices show upward momentum, sells when momentum fades

  3. Automatically reduces positions during sector-wide downturns to protect money

  4. Aims for 20-30 trades per year, letting profits grow over time

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When chip stocks are rallying steadily and AI demand stays strong
  • When the semiconductor sector is outperforming the broader market
  • When volatility is moderate — enough movement to trade, not chaotic
  • When larger tech companies keep buying chips for AI infrastructure

Not built for

  • When the entire chip sector crashes suddenly (like a recession scare)
  • When AI hype cools and investors lose interest in semiconductor stocks
  • When the market freezes up and nobody's buying or selling
  • When a major company (like NVIDIA) disappoints and drags the whole group down

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
5 Sep 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The COVID Crash

A third of the market’s value gone in a month — most of it overnight.

our model of the S&P 500 around Feb–Mar 2020falls about 34% at its worst, then ends about 14% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
19 Feb – 23 Mar 2020
What the index did
fell 33.9%
How we run it
Real trading days

The fastest fall of that size on record: 23 trading days from an all-time high to the bottom. Much of it happened overnight — big companies opened 8-12% below where they had closed the day before.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    17 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 25% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

On nine days here, the market opened far below where it closed the day before.

An order set to sell at 25% down can end up selling far below that. If the market opens below that price, there is no chance to sell at it. That is what this market is here to show, and why we keep it in the set.

When markets go nowhere

When Tech Handed Over to Oil

Yesterday’s winners became 2022’s losers.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2021–22rises about 27% at its turn, then ends about 2% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
4 Jan 2021 – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
2.2% higher
How we run it
Real trading days

The index gained 27% in 2021 and gave almost all of it back in 2022, finishing the two years roughly where it began. Underneath that flat line the leadership inverted: technology, the index's largest sector, contributed most of the 2021 gain and was among the hardest hit in 2022, while energy was 2022's best-performing sector by a wide margin.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    17 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 25% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets go nowhere

The Wild Swings of Late 2022

Violent rallies and sharp drops, ending roughly flat.

our model of the S&P 500 around Jun–Dec 2022swings about 13% either way, and ends about 2% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
30 Jun – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
1.4% higher

When markets fall

The Christmas 2018 Scare

A sudden drop, then a full recovery within months.

our model of the S&P 500 around Sep 2018–Apr 2019falls about 20% at its worst, then ends about 6% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
20 Sep 2018 – 23 Apr 2019
What the index did
roughly flat

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/ai-trading-strategy-301d2a?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled Tested
  • The 2020 ReboundWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere · shown above Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 17 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

NVDAAVGOAMDMRVLQCOMMU

+ 11 more assets in this strategy

Sign in to see them →

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Get Started

Ready to Deploy This Strategy?

Connect your exchange, subscribe, and let the algorithm trade for you. No coding required.

Start Trading Now →