US Manufacturing Guard

CAT
DE
GE
5 assetslow risk1d
byCharvi Agarwal

Price

Free

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The idea

This strategy invests across a basket of four major industrial manufacturing names, staying long only when each stock is holding up well and stepping aside the moment one starts to break down. It watches for two kinds of trouble: a slow, grinding decline off recent highs, or a sudden sharp drop over just a few days. Either one triggers an exit for that specific stock, while the others keep running independently. Any capital freed up from an exited position doesn't sit idle in cash — it automatically shifts into short-term T-Bills, so the portfolio always stays fully deployed, just in safer form. Re-entry is deliberately cautious: a stock only gets bought back after it shows a real, confirmed bounce off its recent lows and steady footing above its short-term trend, rather than jumping back in on the first green candle.

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets — though this one has not been through them yet. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled

When markets fall

The Christmas 2018 Scare

A sudden drop, then a full recovery within months.

our model of the S&P 500 around Sep 2018–Apr 2019falls about 20% at its worst, then ends about 6% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
20 Sep 2018 – 23 Apr 2019
What the index did
roughly flat
How we run it
Real trading days

A 20% fall into Christmas Eve 2018 on tightening fears, then a recovery to a new all-time high within four months. Anything that sold near the low and waited for confirmation missed it.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    5 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 20% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

On two days here, the market opened far below where it closed the day before.

An order set to sell at 20% down can end up selling far below that. If the market opens below that price, there is no chance to sell at it. That is what this market is here to show, and why we keep it in the set.

When markets go nowhere

When Tech Handed Over to Oil

Yesterday’s winners became 2022’s losers.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2021–22rises about 27% at its turn, then ends about 2% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
4 Jan 2021 – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
2.2% higher
How we run it
Real trading days

The index gained 27% in 2021 and gave almost all of it back in 2022, finishing the two years roughly where it began. Underneath that flat line the leadership inverted: technology, the index's largest sector, contributed most of the 2021 gain and was among the hardest hit in 2022, while energy was 2022's best-performing sector by a wide margin.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    5 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 20% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

This strategy has not been through the lab yet.

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled
  • The 2020 ReboundWhen markets rise
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall · shown above
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall · shown above
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere · shown above

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 5 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

CATDEGE

+ 2 more assets in this strategy

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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