5 assetsLow risk1d

US Manufacturing Guard

Watches four industrial stocks, exits when they weaken, parks money safely in T-Bills, re-enters only after confirmed recovery.

By Charvi AgarwalAutomated, rules-basedVersion 7

Investment thesis

This strategy invests across a basket of four major industrial manufacturing names, staying long only when each stock is holding up well and stepping aside the moment one starts to break down. It watches for two kinds of trouble: a slow, grinding decline off recent highs, or a sudden sharp drop over just a few days. Either one triggers an exit for that specific stock, while the others keep running independently. Any capital freed up from an exited position doesn't sit idle in cash — it automatically shifts into short-term T-Bills, so the portfolio always stays fully deployed, just in safer form. Re-entry is deliberately cautious: a stock only gets bought back after it shows a real, confirmed bounce off its recent lows and steady footing above its short-term trend, rather than jumping back in on the first green candle.

How it works

  1. Holds four major manufacturing companies (CAT, DE, GE, BIL, GEV)

  2. Automatically sells a stock if it drops sharply or slowly fades

  3. Moves freed-up money into T-Bills instead of sitting in cash

  4. Only buys back after stock proves it's genuinely bouncing back

Works best when

  • When manufacturing stocks are climbing steadily without major shocks
  • When the market has clear winners and losers you can identify
  • When one stock weakens while others stay strong (selective approach helps)
  • When there's enough time between exits and re-entries to avoid whipsaw

Watch out for

  • When all four stocks crash together (no safe place to hide)
  • When stocks bounce around wildly with false recoveries (confuses re-entry signals)
  • When the entire industrial sector is in a prolonged slump
  • When a stock drops fast, bounces briefly, then crashes again (triggers false re-entry)

Performance

Backtested

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Hypothetical backtest results, risk numbers and stress-test outcomes are shown only to signed-in investors, after the advisory fee and alongside the S&P 500. Backtested results are not returns any account earned.

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Track record

Strategy created
Sep 25, 2026
First listed
Sep 25, 2026
Current version
Version 7
since Sep 25, 2026
Live track record
Not yet
no combined account history

Portfolio

5 holdings · target weights for version 7, as of Sep 25, 2026. Actual positions vary with signals.

Electronic & other electrical equipment (no computer equip)40%Construction machinery & equip20%Farm machinery & equipment20%Unclassified20%
HoldingSectorTarget weightMarket cap
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
Construction machinery & equip
20%
$282.07B
DE
Deere & Company
Farm machinery & equipment
20%
$180.00B
GE
GE Aerospace
Electronic & other electrical equipment (no computer equip)
20%
$327.64B
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
—
20%
—
GEV
GE Vernova Inc.
Electronic & other electrical equipment (no computer equip)
20%
$228.22B

Risk & rules

The automated rules that limit losses.

Portfolio guardrail
From the account’s high point · closes every position
Max drawdown 25% → Close all & pause
Per-position rules
Varies by holding · closes one position
Stop loss 15% to 20%Take profit 50% to 100%Leverage None

Stops trigger on the next available price. A price gap, overnight or in a fast market, can fill well below the 15% level.

Stress tests

Ten difficult markets, chosen in advance. Eight replay real trading days; two are modelled stand-ins.

MarketMethodResult
The Bull Run of 2016–17ModelledSign in to view
The 2020 ReboundReplaySign in to view
The 2022 SlumpReplaySign in to view
The COVID CrashReplaySign in to view
The Christmas 2018 ScareReplaySign in to view
The Year That Went NowhereModelledSign in to view
The Wild Swings of Late 2022ReplaySign in to view
The Quiet YearReplaySign in to view
The Magnificent Seven YearReplaySign in to view
When Tech Handed Over to OilReplaySign in to view

Fees

Licensing fee
None
Advisory fee
Up to 1.00% a year
On deployed capital, billed on your balance
Advisory fee on $10,000 at the maximum rate
1 year
$100
3 years
$300
5 years
$500

Assumes the balance stays at $10,000. Spreads and regulatory fees may also apply.

Documents

Form ADV Part 2ASEC ↗Form CRSPDF ↓Strategy prospectusSign in

Important information

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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