US Manufacturing & Reshoring

ROK
TER
CGNX
+1
11 assetsmoderate risk1d

Bets on US factory-building boom by holding industrial equipment makers in three risk tiers.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

Free

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The idea

Bets on US factory-building boom by holding industrial equipment makers in three risk tiers.

Captures the largest US manufacturing investment cycle since World War II. Tariffs, the CHIPS Act, and post-COVID supply chain reshoring are driving record construction spending on domestic factories — every one of which needs automation equipment, vision systems, test hardware, and industrial controls to operate. This strategy holds 11 stocks across the reshoring supply chain in three tiers: core automation providers that equip every factory (Rockwell, Teradyne, Cognex), enabling technology suppliers in edge AI, motion control, and process automation (Ambarella, Moog, Novanta, Emerson), and high-growth semiconductor fab equipment makers tied directly to CHIPS Act buildouts (MKS Instruments, ONTO Innovation, Coherent). XLI regime filter protects against industrial downturns — Tier 3 exits when sentiment breaks for 5 days, Tier 2 exits at 10 days, while Tier 1 stays invested as all-weather core holdings. Monthly momentum rotation replaces the weakest performers with the strongest, and per-tier trailing stops (18%/15%/12%) match risk tolerance to volatility. The capex pipeline extends through 2028 with billions in committed factory builds already underway.

Design

How it works

  1. Holds 11 stocks that supply automation gear to new US factories

  2. Automatically sells weakest performers monthly, keeps strongest

  3. Uses market health check to reduce holdings when industrial sector weakens

  4. Cuts losses at different speeds depending on stock tier

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When US manufacturing spending stays strong and steady
  • When industrial companies report growing orders and revenue
  • When broader economy signals confidence in factory expansion
  • When automation and semiconductor equipment demand stays high

Not built for

  • When recession fears hit and companies pause factory projects
  • When tariffs or policy changes suddenly reverse reshoring momentum
  • When semiconductor industry hits a downturn or oversupply
  • When the bot's core holdings all drop together in market panic

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

A strategy that has only ever seen a rising market has not been tested — it has been flattered. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten markets, and this one has been through them: ten stretches of market history, named and dated, chosen before the strategy existed. The 2022 slump. The COVID crash. A year that went nowhere.

Two of them are below, with our model of that market’s shape and the rules this strategy trades under when it arrives. None of this is a score. How the strategy actually did lives in your dashboard, not on this page.

10markets, chosen before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the actual trading days of the period named
2 of 10modelled, and labelled as modelled
26 Aug 2026when this strategy was last put through them

When markets fall

The Christmas 2018 Scare

A sudden drop, then a full recovery within months.

our model of the S&P 500 around Sep 2018–Apr 2019falls about 20% at its worst, then ends about 6% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real period we model it on
20 Sep 2018 – 23 Apr 2019
What the index did then
the index finished roughly where it began
How we test it
Runs on the actual trading days

A 20% fall into Christmas Eve 2018 on tightening fears, then a recovery to a new all-time high within four months. Anything that sold near the low and waited for confirmation missed it.

What this strategy is told to do here

  1. 1
    Holding

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    Trigger

    Any holding falls 16% to 25% below what it was bought for.

  3. 3
    Action

    That holding is sold. The rest keep trading.

Two days in this stretch open far below the previous close.

An order set to sell 16% to 25% down can end up selling far lower when the market opens below that price. An overnight drop cannot be sold into. That is exactly what this market is here to find out, and it is why it is in the set.

When markets go nowhere

The Magnificent Seven Year

A handful of big names carried 2023; most stocks didn’t.

our model of the S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin around 2023ends about 8% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin
The real period we model it on
3 Jan – 29 Dec 2023
What the index did then
the index rose 24.2%
How we test it
Runs on the actual trading days

The cap-weighted index rose 24% while the equal-weighted version managed under 12%: a handful of very large names carried almost the whole gain and the median stock did little.

What this strategy is told to do here

  1. 1
    Holding

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    Trigger

    Any holding falls 16% to 25% below what it was bought for.

  3. 3
    Action

    That holding is sold. The rest keep trading.

  4. and every one of those trades is charged for

    4
    Cost of a trade

    0.1% commission, plus 0.05% for the price moving while the order fills.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges for every trade made inside it. It is the kind of market where the cost of trading piles up fastest, which is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets fall

The 2022 Slump

A full year of falling prices as interest rates shot up.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 around 2022ends about 33% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100
The real period we model it on
3 Jan – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did then
the index fell 33%

Sign in to see how this strategy handled each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can tell you what they mean for you. They are simulated results, and they are never shown on this page.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/us-manufacturing-reshoring?tab=stress

All ten markets in the set

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17 · modelled
  • The 2020 Tech Boom
  • The 2022 Slump ✓ shown above
  • The COVID Crash
  • The Christmas 2018 Scare ✓ shown above
  • The Year That Went Nowhere · modelled
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022
  • The Quiet Year
  • The Magnificent Seven Year ✓ shown above
  • When Tech Handed Over to Oil

8 of these 10 can run on the actual trading days of the period named. 2 are modelled — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. Our market data does not reach far enough back to replay them with the run-in a strategy needs behind it, so they are modelled versions built to match the character of those years rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast and is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and carry no scale. The dates and index moves listed beside each one are the real historical figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page describes how any strategy performed in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 11 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

ROK
TER
CGNX
AMBA

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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