Energy Sector Momentum & Shield

FTI
BKR
TRGP
+1
12 assetslow risk1d

Bets on energy stocks when they're heating up, switches to safer assets when momentum cools.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

Free

Subscribe for Free

Paper-trade it first. Connect an exchange when you're ready.

The idea

Bets on energy stocks when they're heating up, switches to safer assets when momentum cools.

Oil and gas isn't dead — it's being repriced. Global energy demand hit a record 105 million barrels per day in 2025, U.S. LNG export capacity is doubling by 2029, and AI data centers are driving the largest surge in natural gas power demand in decades. But energy stocks move in violent cycles — crude can swing 30% in a quarter on OPEC decisions, geopolitical shocks, or recession fears. This strategy captures the upside while respecting the volatility. It spans the full energy value chain: the service companies drilling and completing wells when capex cycles up, the midstream pipelines collecting toll revenue on every molecule that flows, the refiners turning crude into gasoline and jet fuel at record crack spreads, and the LNG operators exporting American gas to an energy-starved world. When energy stocks are trending higher, the strategy rides them with conviction. When momentum fades, it rotates into gold and short-term Treasuries — your capital earns yield or hedges inflation instead of sitting through a drawdown. It's built for investors who believe the energy supercycle has years to run but want a strategy that protects capital when the cycle inevitably pauses.

Design

How it works

  1. Buys oil, gas, and pipeline companies during uptrends

  2. Rotates to gold and short-term bonds when energy loses steam

  3. Covers the whole energy chain: drillers, pipelines, refiners, exporters

  4. Checks signals once per day, compounds winners without constant reshuffling

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When oil prices are climbing steadily and energy stocks follow along
  • During periods when global energy demand is strong and supply is tight
  • When geopolitical events boost energy prices without causing panic selling
  • When the broader market is calm enough for sector trends to develop clearly

Not built for

  • When oil crashes suddenly on recession fears or surprise supply news
  • During market-wide panics where everything sells off at once
  • When energy stocks bounce sideways for months with no clear direction
  • When the Federal Reserve raises rates sharply, hurting both stocks and commodities

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
26 Aug 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The Christmas 2018 Scare

A sudden drop, then a full recovery within months.

our model of the S&P 500 around Sep 2018–Apr 2019falls about 20% at its worst, then ends about 6% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
20 Sep 2018 – 23 Apr 2019
What the index did
roughly flat
How we run it
Real trading days

A 20% fall into Christmas Eve 2018 on tightening fears, then a recovery to a new all-time high within four months. Anything that sold near the low and waited for confirmation missed it.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    12 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 8% to 15% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

On two days here, the market opened far below where it closed the day before.

An order set to sell at 8% to 15% down can end up selling far below that. If the market opens below that price, there is no chance to sell at it. That is what this market is here to show, and why we keep it in the set.

When markets go nowhere

When Tech Handed Over to Oil

Yesterday’s winners became 2022’s losers.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 vs energy around 2021–22rises about 28% at its turn, then ends about 12% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100 vs energy
The real dates
4 Jan 2021 – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
fell 15.3%
How we run it
Real trading days

Technology led 2021 and then fell by a third in 2022, while energy — the prior laggard — became the best-performing sector by a wide margin. The leadership inverted almost exactly.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    12 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 8% to 15% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets fall

The COVID Crash

A third of the market’s value gone in a month — most of it overnight.

our model of the S&P 500 around Feb–Mar 2020falls about 34% at its worst, then ends about 14% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
19 Feb – 23 Mar 2020
What the index did
fell 33.9%

When markets go nowhere

The Year That Went Nowhere

2015 swung up and down all year and finished where it started.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2015swings about 9% either way, and ends about 1% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
2 Jan – 31 Dec 2015
What the index did
roughly flat

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/energy-sector-momentum-shield?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled Tested
  • The 2020 Tech BoomWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled · shown above Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere · shown above Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 12 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

FTIBKRTRGPWMB

+ 8 more assets in this strategy

Sign in to see them →

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Get Started

Ready to Deploy This Strategy?

Connect your exchange, subscribe, and let the algorithm trade for you. No coding required.

Start Trading Now →