Commodity Surge - Precious Metals & Energy

GLD
SLV
UNG
3 assetslow risk1d

Buys gold, silver, and natural gas only when prices are surging near their yearly highs.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

$150

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The idea

Buys gold, silver, and natural gas only when prices are surging near their yearly highs.

This strategy trades gold, silver, and natural gas — three commodities that tend to move in powerful, sustained surges when conditions align. It takes long-only positions, meaning it profits when prices rise, and it stays completely out of the market during weak or choppy periods. The core idea is simple: only buy when a commodity is already near its strongest recent price and showing upward momentum. Think of it like only jumping on a train that's already moving fast and hasn't slowed down yet. Each position has its own exit plan. Gold is given more room to breathe with a generous upside target, while silver and natural gas carry both an upside target and a built-in safety net that automatically closes the trade if prices drop too far — protecting you from the sharper swings those markets are known for. Imagine natural gas has been quietly climbing for months and finally pushes close to a one-year high. This strategy would see that as a green light to enter. If gas keeps climbing, it rides the move toward its profit target. If it suddenly reverses and falls, the stop-loss kicks in and closes the trade before the damage gets too deep. This is a patient, selective strategy — it won't trade just to trade. It waits for strength, commits with conviction, and steps aside when the trend breaks down.

Design

How it works

  1. Enters trades when momentum is strong and rising

  2. Exits automatically if prices drop or momentum fades

  3. Sits on the sidelines during weak or choppy markets

  4. Uses built-in safety stops to limit losses on volatile assets

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When precious metals and energy prices are in sustained upward moves
  • When commodities break out to new yearly highs with steady buying pressure
  • When market conditions favor inflation or supply concerns
  • When volatility is moderate — enough movement to catch trends, not chaotic

Not built for

  • When commodity prices crash suddenly or reverse sharply downward
  • When markets trade sideways or choppy with no clear direction
  • When false breakouts happen — prices spike then immediately fall back
  • When geopolitical or economic shocks cause panic selling across all commodities

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
26 Aug 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The 2022 Slump

A full year of falling prices as interest rates shot up.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 around 2022ends about 33% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100
The real dates
3 Jan – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
fell 33%
How we run it
Real trading days

A full year of lower highs as the Federal Reserve raised rates from near zero to over 4%. Four separate rallies of 10% or more along the way, every one of which failed.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    3 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 3% to 4% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

When markets go nowhere

The Wild Swings of Late 2022

Violent rallies and sharp drops, ending roughly flat.

our model of the S&P 500 around Jun–Dec 2022swings about 13% either way, and ends about 2% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
30 Jun – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
1.4% higher
How we run it
Real trading days

Essentially flat over six months, but by way of a 17% summer rally, a 17% autumn decline, and a 14% year-end rally. The destination was nowhere; the journey was violent.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    3 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 3% to 4% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets rise

The Quiet Year

2017 — the calmest year the market has recorded.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2017ends about 12% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
3 Jan – 29 Dec 2017
What the index did
rose 19.4%

When markets rise

The Bull Run of 2016–17

Two calm years when the market just kept climbing.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2016–17ends about 42% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
4 Jan 2016 – 29 Dec 2017
What the index did
rose 30.8%

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/commodities-surge-precious-metals?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled · shown above Tested
  • The 2020 Tech BoomWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise · shown above Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

The 3 positions this strategy trades. Holdings can change as the strategy rebalances.

GLDSLVUNG

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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