US Primary Infrastructure

PWR
VMC
EME
+1
11 assetslow risk1d

Bets on US infrastructure companies before the market catches on, then scales back risk when trouble appears.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

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The idea

Bets on US infrastructure companies before the market catches on, then scales back risk when trouble appears.

This long-only strategy is built around a simple idea: when the US government spends big on infrastructure, certain American companies win — and this algorithm tries to own them before the market fully prices it in. The portfolio is organized into three layers, each with a different job. The core layer holds the companies most directly tied to federally mandated construction and grid modernization — businesses with multi-year contract backlogs that don't disappear overnight. A middle layer adds domestic steel, energy refining, and materials companies that benefit when American manufacturing is running hot. The outer layer captures shipping and heavy equipment names that tend to surge when fiscal spending flows through the broader economy. What makes this strategy different from a simple buy-and-hold is how it reacts to trouble. It watches the broader industrial sector as a market 'mood ring.' If industrials start weakening, the strategy doesn't panic all at once — it peels back the most speculative positions first, then the middle layer, while keeping the core holdings intact as long as the underlying business case holds. When conditions recover, it re-enters those outer positions carefully and only when price momentum supports it. The strategy is patient and selective about entries — it waits for a stock to show upward momentum before buying, and it rotates out of laggards monthly in favor of stronger names. It's not a fast trader. Think of it as a deliberate, conviction-driven portfolio that stays invested in America's infrastructure buildout while actively managing how much risk it carries depending on what the market is doing. A simple scenario: imagine industrial stocks start quietly sliding for two weeks. Rather than holding everything and hoping, this strategy would have already trimmed the tanker and shipping names after five days of weakness, then reduced the steel and materials exposure after ten — leaving only the core infrastructure contractors standing. When the market stabilizes and recovers, it methodically rebuilds those positions, but only in names showing real price strength.

Design

How it works

  1. Owns construction, steel, and shipping companies that benefit from government spending

  2. Automatically reduces risky positions when industrial sector weakens

  3. Waits for price strength before buying, avoids chasing losers

  4. Keeps core holdings during downturns if the business case stays solid

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When government announces or increases infrastructure spending plans
  • When industrial sector stocks are climbing steadily over weeks
  • When steel, energy, and construction materials are in demand
  • When the broader economy shows signs of expansion and confidence

Not built for

  • When the government cuts infrastructure budgets or spending slows unexpectedly
  • When the entire stock market crashes suddenly (bot can't protect fast enough)
  • When interest rates spike and make construction projects uneconomical
  • When recession fears hit and investors flee industrial stocks all at once

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
26 Aug 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The Christmas 2018 Scare

A sudden drop, then a full recovery within months.

our model of the S&P 500 around Sep 2018–Apr 2019falls about 20% at its worst, then ends about 6% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
20 Sep 2018 – 23 Apr 2019
What the index did
roughly flat
How we run it
Real trading days

A 20% fall into Christmas Eve 2018 on tightening fears, then a recovery to a new all-time high within four months. Anything that sold near the low and waited for confirmation missed it.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 15% to 18% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

On two days here, the market opened far below where it closed the day before.

An order set to sell at 15% to 18% down can end up selling far below that. If the market opens below that price, there is no chance to sell at it. That is what this market is here to show, and why we keep it in the set.

When markets go nowhere

The Magnificent Seven Year

A handful of big names carried 2023; most stocks didn’t.

our model of the S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin around 2023ends about 8% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin
The real dates
3 Jan – 29 Dec 2023
What the index did
rose 24.2%
How we run it
Real trading days

The cap-weighted index rose 24% while the equal-weighted version managed under 12%: a handful of very large names carried almost the whole gain and the median stock did little.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 15% to 18% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets rise

The Quiet Year

2017 — the calmest year the market has recorded.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2017ends about 12% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
3 Jan – 29 Dec 2017
What the index did
rose 19.4%

When markets fall

The COVID Crash

A third of the market’s value gone in a month — most of it overnight.

our model of the S&P 500 around Feb–Mar 2020falls about 34% at its worst, then ends about 14% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
19 Feb – 23 Mar 2020
What the index did
fell 33.9%

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/us-primary-infrastructure?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled Tested
  • The 2020 Tech BoomWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise · shown above Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 11 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

+ 7 more assets in this strategy

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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