Space Economy Edge

RKLB
LUNR
RDW
+1
11 assetslow risk1d

Picks 12 space industry companies and rotates them based on momentum and earnings timing.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

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The idea

Picks 12 space industry companies and rotates them based on momentum and earnings timing.

Space stopped being a science project in 2023. SpaceX collapsed launch costs from $50,000/kg to $2,700/kg, and suddenly every business plan that assumed cheap access to orbit became viable. Rocket Lab just posted $200M in quarterly revenue with a $2.2B backlog and 31 launch contracts signed in a single quarter. Intuitive Machines is guiding $900M to $1B in 2026 revenue — a 5x increase — off NASA lunar delivery contracts and defense awards. Redwire's backlog hit $498M building space infrastructure and manufacturing hardware in orbit. Planet Labs sits on a $900M backlog selling AI-processed satellite imagery to defense and commercial clients. These aren't pitch decks — these are production contracts with the US government and Fortune 500 companies. Three forces are driving this simultaneously. Government spending on space shifted from R&D budgets to production-scale contracts — the Space Development Agency, Artemis moon base, Space Force, and classified programs are all writing checks measured in billions, not millions. AI created commercial demand for space data that didn't exist five years ago — a satellite image is just a picture until machine learning can extract real-time intelligence from it at scale. And a SpaceX IPO expected at a $2 trillion valuation later this year will force every institutional investor to build a space allocation for the first time, repricing every publicly traded space company in the process. Space ETFs like ARKX and UFO spread across 30 to 50 holdings including legacy aerospace conglomerates where space is a single-digit percentage of revenue. This strategy owns 12 pure-play names across three layers: the launch providers and infrastructure builders with multi-billion-dollar backlogs, the satellite data and connectivity companies monetizing space commercially, and the emerging operators that add diversification and upside. When the sector enters a sustained downtrend, the strategy pulls speculative positions to cash and holds the revenue-backed core. Each month it rotates the weakest momentum names out and the strongest in. Before earnings — events that routinely swing space stocks 20 to 30 percent — it trims profitable positions to protect gains. Space is volatile by nature. This strategy was built to thrive in that volatility rather than just absorb it.

Design

How it works

  1. Focuses on companies actually making money from space contracts

  2. Sells winners before earnings to lock in gains

  3. Moves to cash when the sector gets hit hard

  4. Swaps out weak performers for stronger ones monthly

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When space stocks are climbing steadily over weeks or months
  • When earnings surprises are positive and drive sector rallies
  • When government contracts and commercial deals get announced
  • When volatility stays moderate — not too calm, not chaotic

Not built for

  • When the entire space sector crashes suddenly on bad news
  • When a major player (like SpaceX) has a setback affecting sentiment
  • When the broader market tanks and drags everything down with it
  • When earnings disappoint and trigger 20-30% single-day drops

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
5 Sep 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The COVID Crash

A third of the market’s value gone in a month — most of it overnight.

our model of the S&P 500 around Feb–Mar 2020falls about 34% at its worst, then ends about 14% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
19 Feb – 23 Mar 2020
What the index did
fell 33.9%
How we run it
Real trading days

The fastest fall of that size on record: 23 trading days from an all-time high to the bottom. Much of it happened overnight — big companies opened 8-12% below where they had closed the day before.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 20% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

On nine days here, the market opened far below where it closed the day before.

An order set to sell at 20% down can end up selling far below that. If the market opens below that price, there is no chance to sell at it. That is what this market is here to show, and why we keep it in the set.

When markets go nowhere

The Magnificent Seven Year

A handful of big names carried 2023; most stocks didn’t.

our model of the S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin around 2023ends about 8% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500 vs its equal-weighted twin
The real dates
3 Jan – 29 Dec 2023
What the index did
rose 24.2%
How we run it
Real trading days

The cap-weighted index rose 24% while the equal-weighted version managed under 12%: a handful of very large names carried almost the whole gain and the median stock did little.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    11 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 20% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets fall

The 2022 Slump

A full year of falling prices as interest rates shot up.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2022ends about 20% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
3 Jan – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
fell 19.4%

When markets go nowhere

The Wild Swings of Late 2022

Violent rallies and sharp drops, ending roughly flat.

our model of the S&P 500 around Jun–Dec 2022swings about 13% either way, and ends about 2% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
30 Jun – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
1.4% higher

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/space-economy-edge?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled Tested
  • The 2020 ReboundWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 — The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 11 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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