Critical Minerals Reshoring

MP
USAR
UUUU
7 assetslow risk1d

Bet on U.S. companies securing America's critical minerals supply, with precious metals as a safety cushion.

byAmaltash Advisors LLC

Price

Free

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The idea

Bet on U.S. companies securing America's critical minerals supply, with precious metals as a safety cushion.

This strategy invests in a curated basket of U.S. and allied companies rebuilding the West's critical minerals supply chain — think rare earth miners with Pentagon offtake agreements, uranium producers fueling the nuclear revival, lithium developers backed by Department of Energy loans, and the polymetallic and copper firms feeding the defense and EV buildout. It's long-only, meaning it profits when these companies grow, and it never bets against the market. Rides the once-in-a-generation reshoring of strategic minerals — from rare earth processors with DoD price floors at 2x market to nuclear fuel suppliers powering the AI grid and the deep-sea polymetallic pioneers staking battery-grade reserves of cobalt, nickel, and manganese. As the 2027 ban on Chinese-origin rare earths in defense applications takes effect and China weaponizes export controls, securing non-Chinese supply is the binding constraint for every defense prime, automaker, and utility in the Western alliance — China still processes 90%+ of the world's rare earths today. This strategy targets companies whose offtake contracts, government equity stakes, and federally backed price floors are already locking in 10+ years of guaranteed Western demand. The strategy is patient and selective by design. It only enters a position when the market is showing real upward strength — if a stock is struggling or trending in the wrong direction, the strategy simply steps aside and holds cash rather than forcing a trade. This keeps the portfolio out of trouble during weak or choppy markets. Rebalancing happens quarterly, giving the strategy a calm, unhurried rhythm. It's not chasing daily swings. Instead, it waits for the right moment at the start of each new quarter to reassess and reposition. If something breaks down mid-quarter, it exits quickly and waits — no jumping back in early. This strategy shines during commodity bull cycles when critical mineral stocks are in strong uptrends. It tends to sit out or reduce exposure during broad market selloffs or sector-specific downturns. The gold and silver allocation provides a softer landing during rocky periods. Investors drawn to the resource sector who want a disciplined, rules-based approach — rather than emotional decision-making — will find this strategy's structure appealing.

Design

How it works

  1. Picks companies mining rare earths, uranium, lithium, and other strategic metals

  2. Holds gold and silver to soften losses during market downturns

  3. Only buys when prices are trending upward; sits in cash when they're weak

  4. Rebalances once per quarter, not chasing daily price swings

Conditions

Where it works, and where it doesn't

Every strategy is built for a particular kind of market. These are the conditions this one is designed around — and the ones it is not.

Built for

  • When commodity prices are rising steadily and mining stocks are in favor
  • During periods when government support for domestic mineral production is strong
  • When geopolitical tensions increase demand for non-Chinese supply chains
  • When the broader market is calm and risk appetite is healthy

Not built for

  • When commodity prices crash suddenly or enter a prolonged bear market
  • During broad stock market selloffs when investors flee all risky assets
  • When government policy shifts away from reshoring initiatives
  • When mining stocks fall out of favor despite strong commodity fundamentals

The Simulation Lab

Ten bad markets, before your money is in one.

Almost anything looks good in a rising market. That is not a test. So we put the strategies listed here through the same ten bad markets, and this one has been through them. They are stretches of real market history, with names and dates: the 2022 slump, the COVID crash, a year that went nowhere. We picked them before this strategy existed.

Two of them are below. Each one shows our drawing of what that market looked like, and the rules this strategy follows when a market like it turns up. None of this is a score. What actually happened to the strategy is in your dashboard, not on this page.

10bad markets, picked before this strategy existed
8 of 10can run on the real trading days of the time they name
2 of 10we model ourselves, and we mark them as modelled
26 Aug 2026when we last ran this strategy through them

When markets fall

The 2022 Slump

A full year of falling prices as interest rates shot up.

our model of the Nasdaq 100 around 2022ends about 33% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
Nasdaq 100
The real dates
3 Jan – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
fell 33%
How we run it
Real trading days

A full year of lower highs as the Federal Reserve raised rates from near zero to over 4%. Four separate rallies of 10% or more along the way, every one of which failed.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    7 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 7% to 10% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

When markets go nowhere

The Wild Swings of Late 2022

Violent rallies and sharp drops, ending roughly flat.

our model of the S&P 500 around Jun–Dec 2022swings about 13% either way, and ends about 2% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
30 Jun – 30 Dec 2022
What the index did
1.4% higher
How we run it
Real trading days

Essentially flat over six months, but by way of a 17% summer rally, a 17% autumn decline, and a 14% year-end rally. The destination was nowhere; the journey was violent.

The rules this strategy follows here

  1. 1
    What it holds

    7 companies.

  2. 2
    When it sells

    One of them drops 7% to 10% below the price it was bought at.

  3. 3
    What it does

    It sells that one. The rest carry on.

No overnight drops in this market.

A market that ends where it started still charges you for every trade made inside it. This is where the cost of trading adds up fastest. That is why it sits in the set right next to the crash.

When markets rise

The Bull Run of 2016–17

Two calm years when the market just kept climbing.

our model of the S&P 500 around 2016–17ends about 42% above where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
4 Jan 2016 – 29 Dec 2017
What the index did
rose 30.8%

When markets fall

The COVID Crash

A third of the market’s value gone in a month — most of it overnight.

our model of the S&P 500 around Feb–Mar 2020falls about 34% at its worst, then ends about 14% below where it begana shape, not a scale · not this strategy

Index
S&P 500
The real dates
19 Feb – 23 Mar 2020
What the index did
fell 33.9%

Sign in to see how this strategy did in each one.

The results open in your dashboard, where we can explain what they mean for you. They are simulated results, so we never show them here.

Open the stress tests

trade.amaltash.com/marketplace/critical-minerals-reshoring?tab=stress

All ten markets

  • The Bull Run of 2016–17When markets rise · modelled · shown above Tested
  • The 2020 Tech BoomWhen markets rise Tested
  • The 2022 SlumpWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The COVID CrashWhen markets fall · shown above Tested
  • The Christmas 2018 ScareWhen markets fall Tested
  • The Year That Went NowhereWhen markets go nowhere · modelled Tested
  • The Wild Swings of Late 2022When markets go nowhere · shown above Tested
  • The Quiet YearWhen markets rise Tested
  • The Magnificent Seven YearWhen markets go nowhere Tested
  • When Tech Handed Over to OilWhen markets go nowhere Tested

These ten are the whole set. We picked them for the damage they did — the fastest crash on record, a year that went nowhere, a grind that punished every rally — not for how they make anything look.

8 of these 10 can run on the real trading days of the time they name. We model the other 2 The Bull Run of 2016–17 and The Year That Went Nowhere. A strategy needs a stretch of history to warm up on before a test starts, and our price data does not go back far enough to give these that. So we built stand-ins that behave like those years, rather than replays of them. A modelled market is not a forecast, and it is not what would have happened. The shapes drawn above are our models of those markets — never this strategy — and they have no scale. The dates and index moves next to each one are the real figures for the period it is modelled on. Nothing on this page says how any strategy did in these tests.

Holdings

What it holds

A few of the 7 positions this strategy trades. Sign in to see the full basket and the weights behind it.

+ 4 more assets in this strategy

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices can be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Trading on margin or with leverage increases potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not Financial Advice: The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. We do not recommend any particular trading strategy or instrument. Please conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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